What's gone wrong with Rom?

Romelu Lukaku: Why is it going wrong, and how do you fix him?

“..You have a centre-forward like that, I don’t think Chelsea have quite figured out how to use him yet.” – when Antonio Conte said this near the end of September about Romelu Lukaku, his words were laughed off. However, two months and zero goals later, perhaps Lukaku’s former mentor had a point.

Even considering his injury, the £103 million man has gone 10 Chelsea matches now without a goal, with his only contribution across all competitions an assist against Malmo in Chelsea’s first win against the Swedish side.

More worryingly, Lukaku is currently averaging 2.5 shots p90 (behind Havertz, Werner and Ziyech), and when looking at shots-on-target p90, the Belgian is being outmatched by the likes of Ben Chilwell, Reece James, and even N’Golo Kante.

Plainly, there is an issue with Lukaku at Chelsea. For watchers of Italian football, the problem is clear. Thomas Tuchel can’t, or perhaps won’t, get the 28-year-old into the same situations as he was in at Inter Milan.

Lukaku at Inter

Though an Italian champion, Inter Milan didn’t boss Serie A in a way akin to Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, or Bayern Munich in Germany. Antonio Conte’s Inter played with only 52.4% of the ball, compared to Chelsea’s 58.6% in 2021/22 [FBREF].

It’s a small window into the differing styles of play. Across Lukaku’s 35 non-penalty goals from August 2019 to May 2021 for Inter Milan, there was a clear pattern. Lukaku was always facing a goal protected usually by a limited number of defenders. Inter Milan were infact, murderous counter-attackers.

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Now this doesn’t mean Inter sat deep, or that they had to play like a Leicester or a West Ham to find space for their forwards. Yet despite holding less possession, they only averaged 33.4 pressures in the oppositions final third p90 minutes. Chelsea for context, are currently averaging 44.6 p90.

That’s an indicator of how Inter Milan were happy to let opposition teams push higher than Chelsea are this season. Their styles of play are totally incompatible. Compare Lukaku’s heatmap in Serie A last season vs his one in the Premier League currently, and other clues to his issues begin to surface.

At Inter, Lukaku was touching the ball in wide spaces. That’s typically a lesser-crowded area of the pitch. It shows how he was getting more ball touches, in deeper areas, where he is more likely to find space and move the ball towards goal. At Chelsea this season, his ball touches have come in central areas, in and around the penalty box. That’s the most crowded area of the pitch. In Italy, Lukaku was averaging 35.4 touches p90. At Chelsea, that’s fallen to 23.2, despite the blues having more possession of the ball.

The alien situations to Lukaku

Having established Lukaku’s strong points and the areas he thrived in at Inter, let’s look at his positions taken up against West Ham in Chelsea’s 3-2 away defeat.

After being subbed on at half time, Lukaku became the tip of Chelsea’s attack. Of course though Chelsea wanted to pin West Ham back. This led to Lukaku being the furthest man forward. Here below, he is between West Ham’s defenders, where even if a pass comes into him he’s likely to have one-two touches. It’s a different situation to the type he usually found himself in at Inter Milan.

Again below, with the scores still at 2-2, Lukaku is the furthest Chelsea man forward. Even playing off the left hand side is arguably alien to Inter Milan Lukaku. Though him and his strike partner Lautaro Martinez rotated well upfront, Lukaku mainly played off the right.

It is fair to criticise Lukaku for his ineffectiveness in these positions. He’s not successfully offered himself up well for vertical passes. He’s also struggled to get on the end of crosses.. With context though, it’s understandable. These situations are not where Inter Milan Lukaku was thriving.

At Inter, Lukaku was playing in a counter attacking side that liked to attack opponents after letting them push high, before running forwards with the ball and striking at an undermanned defence. Crosses were whipped into a box with defence pacing back towards their own goal.

At Chelsea, Lukaku is playing in a possession-dominant side that likes to press high, pinning their opponents back. Chelsea often rely on wing backs for their creative output. Opposition sides are usually camped inside their own box, defending crosses with ease. That helps explain Chelsea’s 19 completed crosses into the penalty box. That is the third lowest figure in the Premier League, according to FBREF.

How do you fix Lukaku?

Unfortunately for Chelsea, there’s no clear solution. They’ve bought a striker for over £100m to play in a system that’s nothing like the one he flourished in. That leaves Thomas Tuchel with two solutions.

A, spend extra time and money to find a way to coach Lukaku to fit into this Chelsea system or, B, Tuchel can tweak his own tactics. Chelsea can concede total control of games, to afford Lukaku the space to turn and charge towards goal on potential counter attacks.

The positives of plan B are more far-reaching than at first glance. It could give Timo Werner more room to flourish, another Chelsea striker who prefers moving towards goal than playing with his back to it. It can also take pressure off Marcos Alonso at LWB, as he wouldn’t need to push so high and potentially get exposed with his recovery pace.

Callum Hudson Odoi, Antonio Rudiger and Jorginho may be the reasons why Chelsea haven’t switched to a system like this though. Hudson Odoi has found form this season in 1v1 situations, looking flashy in wide spaces in and around the box. He’d have to adjust to a more chaotic attack. Rudiger meanwhile, has made crucial supporting runs to upset deep defensive blocks. That skillset could become underused in a more Inter-lite style of play. Jorginho too, has found a home as Chelsea’s conductor of play in settled possession. Asking him to play quicker, vertical passes could be tricky.

Whatever Thomas Tuchel decides to do, Chelsea urgently need to get the best out of Lukaku. Like goalkeepers, confidence is gold dust to strikers. We’ve seen Timo Werner, Alvaro Morata, Fernando Torres and more find their places of rest in Chelsea’s graveyard of finished strikers. The longer Lukaku’s form goes on, and the longer he gets less touches p90 than Edouard Mendy, the bigger this problem gets for the blues.